How Track Surface Conditions Influence Betting Outcomes in Horse Racing

One of the reasons why betting on horse racing is regarded as such a challenge, even for experienced bettors, is that there are so many variables to consider when you are trying to predict the outcome. From the experience of the jockey to the age of the horse, there are hundreds of factors to weigh up. Of all these factors, however, the state of the track surface is one of the most significant.

Turf, Dirt and Sand

The first thing to understand about the effect of track conditions on the outcome of a bet is that racing takes place on different types of surface. Each surface has its own qualities.

Traditionally racing in Europe mostly takes place on grass, while in the United States, it is more common to race on dirt. There are also a number of artificial racing surfaces, such as Polytrack, Fibresand and Tapeta, that are designed to provide for safe and consistent racing conditions all the year round, regardless of the weather.

Racing on each of these surfaces must be regarded as effectively a different form of racing and when tipsters are compiling their betting tips, the type of surface is an essential first consideration.

Turf and the Weather

When races are held on turf, they are obviously extremely susceptible to the effects of weather. Meteorological factors combine with the topography of individual tracks to produce unique conditions, a phenomenon that is particularly apparent in the UK, with its quirky and historic venues.

For instance, the uphill five furlong course at Epsom is one of the fastest in the world, particularly on dry ground, while the uphill five furlong course at Beverley can be a stamina sapping challenge if the ground is soft. While tracks will do their best to mitigate the worst effects of the weather, periods of heavy rain or drought can produce very different racing conditions.

Good or Heavy?

On turf courses, there are traditional descriptions of the track conditions that have been in use for decades. These range from Firm or Hard to Heavy or Very Heavy, depending on the racing jurisdiction. Traditionally, the description depended on the experience and judgement of racetrack officials who wandered around the track inserting a walking stick or similar tool into the turf at various strategic locations. In recent years, this unscientific approach has been replaced by the use of more sophisticated tools that are able to assess the condition of the track surface on a numerical scale.

Dirt and Sand

Dirt and artificial surfaces are less obviously affected by the weather, particularly artificial materials, which are designed partially to provide consistent racing in all conditions.

However, rain can turn dirt surfaces into muddy or slippery tracks, while artificial tracks are also susceptible to changes in extreme conditions of deluge or frost. In addition, artificial surfaces vary in their construction and some, such as Fibresand, generate more loose material than others, which can be thrown up into the faces of the horses and jockeys during a race.

Speed or Stamina

This range of potential surface conditions is relevant to bettors because it can affect which horses are favoured or disadvantaged. For example, if a horse that usually races over a mile enters a sprint race, they may be at risk of being outpaced in normal conditions, but if a heavy downpour turns the track from Firm to Soft, their additional stamina may be an advantage.

Horses for Surfaces

While track conditions can place particular demands on stamina or speed, there is another element for bettors to consider. Some horses run particularly badly or effectively on extremes of going.

For instance, it is often said that those horses with ‘low actions’, that is, horses that do not lift their knees high, are better suited to hard turf, as on softer ground, they become bogged down. Horses with a high knee action, by contrast, are often able to get through heavier ground more easily.

Conclusion

The influence of the track is one of the quirks of horse racing that can make it such a fascinating sport, but for horse racing bettors is also a vital factor to correctly weigh up when predicting the outcome of a race.